Daily pre-game trace
Yankees at Rays
A market-implied win-probability trace where the pre-game leader flipped before first pitch.
Sports Market Observatory
Sports-market movement, visualized.
Sports Market Observatory tracks how betting markets change before games and turns those shifts into clear, timestamped visual stories.
Repeated pre-game snapshots · Market-implied probability · Timestamped to start
Recent market visuals
What the market looked like before the game.
Recent examples show what moved, when it moved, and how much market coverage was captured.
Current example
World Cup: Belgium vs USA
A current tournament example showing three-outcome movement over time, including the draw field and kickoff context.
What we track
One clear market story at a time.
Pre-game probability movement
How aggregate market-implied chances shift before start time.
Market flips and tightening
When the leader changes, or a matchup moves toward a tighter field.
Futures probability fields
How championship probability mass moves across the field.
Three-outcome match-result fields
How win, draw, and opponent states change before start time.
How it works
How the trace is built.
We normalize prices across multiple books into aggregate implied probabilities, then chart how that consensus changes before start time.
Capture window
15h pre-game
Observations
93 snapshots
Market coverage
11 books
Time context
Scheduled start
- 01Capture repeated observations before the scheduled start.
- 02Normalize prices into aggregate market-implied probability.
- 03Plot how consensus changes across the pre-game window.
Updates
Follow the daily market trace.
Follow new pre-game market traces on YouTube and Instagram.
Each visual combines repeated market observations into a clear view of movement, timing, and coverage.